A brief respite from finals to reflect: It's a good day to be a Republican. We've just swept in Virginia (including the Governor's post), and elected a Republican replacement for noted gun hater Gov. John Corzine in New Jersey. But we've also got egg on our face from losing the stalwart NY23 seat to the Dems. Failure is always an opportunity in disguise, so lets look at the lessons to be learned from this situation. (photo jacked from
Politico)
As Orin Kerr noted over at
The Volokh Conspiracy, there are four clear lessons (I've put my own twist to some of these): 1) The conservative movement is alive and well. 2) American's want old-fashioned economic conservatives, and are much more accepting of social moderates than certain pundits would like you to believe. 3) 2010 could be disastrous for Obama, even though there hasn't been a fundamental sea change in opinion since he was elected. 4) Radical right-wingers do not have large scale support.
Obviously the winners in New Jersey and Virginia had to be more moderate and right-of-center than their counterparts elsewhere (ahem, Texas), or they never would have stood a chance. But the real fireworks were in NY23. The Republican nominee there was forced out by a "Conservative Party" candidate who garnered support from the likes of Palin and Glenn Beck. Folks on the far right crowed when the pro-choice, pro-gay rights nominee Scozzafava suspended her campaign last week. But what are they to say now that their candidate has been defeated? I've thought for a while that the fight up there was local at heart--it was a special election, and the moderate party establishment nominated Scozzafava, she wasn't swept in by popular vote. So there was probably some resentment unrelated to her more left-leaning positions. And it's been generally acknowledged that Republicans only held that seat because we've been willing to elect moderates that the area independents could support. Case in point, last night's election. The "Conservative Party" nominee Hoffman won 45.2% of the vote, the Democrat 49.3%, and Scozzafava 5.5%. Isn't it pretty clear that without Hoffman in the race, the Republican would have won? And that's not even counting the independents who voted Democrat, but would liked to have voted for Scozzafava?
This was supposed to be the far right's big hurrah--Palin, Beck, Perry, and all those guys came out in support of Hoffman, and advocated a "purification" of the Republican Party. To win, they said, we've got to be even more conservative than we were before, and stick to our guns. Guys like Newt, however, said they opposite. Remember that Newt was one of the principle architects of our takeover in '94. He said that we've got to stop pushing people out of the big tent, and start figuring out how to work together inside it. As Mark Davis recently said while sitting in for Rush, isn't a 60% R better than a D?
The sad part is, I can't expect that we'll learn this lesson. The talk show guys will chalk the wins in New Jersey and Virginia up to anti-Obama backlash, and call the loss in NY23 a narrow miss. The Obama win in 2008 and the developments of 2009 probably won't be writing on the wall enough to forestall disappointment in 2010. If we want to win, we have to stop giving creedence only to the loudest and most acerbic voices in the party. We have to realize that maybe you can get away with purging the RINOs on a small scale, in safely conservative areas. But we can't keep attacking our own on a nationwide scale, especially in Dem territory like New York.